U.S. pharmaceutical companies have adopted artificial intelligence in drug research almost universally, but few executives expect it to materially improve the odds of drug success, according to a Citi survey released on Tuesday.. Citi Research polled 50 U.S.-based executives responsible for technology strategy in pharmaceutical research and development in June 2026, and found 72% said their companies were scaling or had fully scaled AI across R&D..
No company reported having no plans to adopt AI, the survey found.. Only 24% of respondents said they expected AI to deliver a significant improvement in drug success probability, while 56% expected only a moderate uplift, “not a wholesale revolution.”. Another 34% said human biology, clinical judgment and execution would remain bottlenecks regardless of how much AI was deployed..
“The biggest risk to the AI-powered drug discovery thesis is not that AI fails to accelerate discovery,” said John Yung, head of Asia healthcare research at Citi. “The stronger risk is that acceleration does not translate into better drugs or higher probability of success.”.
Yung added: “It’s only through that translation that companies can turn AI-driven speed into profit, and patients into real beneficiaries.”. Executives identified the biggest near-term payoff for AI in early-stage discovery rather than in clinical work. Target identification and validation was cited by 70% of respondents as an area where AI could improve success rates, followed by lead optimization and hit identification and screening..
Most respondents expected double-digit budget increases for AI-related R&D spending over the next 12 months.. Shortening discovery timelines was the main commercial reason for seeking outside AI partners, and 84% of those surveyed said their companies were working with external AI firms..
Frost & Sullivan estimated AI could save the pharmaceutical industry $26 billion globally in drug discovery and another $28 billion in clinical research, about half of current spending in those phases.. Several Chinese companies in the sector, including Shanghai-listed HitGen and Hong Kong-listed Xtalpi, were already profitable, unlike many U.S. peers that remain loss-making, according to Citi..
Leading Chinese AI drug discovery companies trade at a median price-to-sales ratio of 19 times projected 2026 sales, compared with 93 times for U.S. peers, according to Citi.. Featured image credit. Tags: artificial intelligenceDrug Discovery
